[Orli blog] - Forex and Stock Real Chart Predictions.
Official Orli blog - Forex and Stock Real Chart Predictions Hello! Orli.
In a month, US Presidential Election, but this time Stocks and We will discuss the possibility of FX moving in a big presidential election.
Please read to the end of this article as it can be used as knowledge of current events.
Current events, please read to the end.
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So let's get to today's story!
Please read to the end, please.
Stocks and forex will move in a big way in the US presidential election on November 3!
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Lina-san
Hello, Ollie! Well, this year was the US presidential election!
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Orli
Hello, Lina! The US presidential election will be held on November 3.
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Lina
And I think it's about a month!
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Lina
I mean, I've heard that stocks and forex are going to move so much bigger this year because of the US presidential election, how do you think it will move this year!
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Orli
I'll explain in more detail next.
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Lina-san
Yes!
US presidential elections are held every four years!
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Orli
When Trump was elected in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, U.S. stocks rose as a "Trump market".
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Lina
I see But we've had presidents who have been in office for 8 years or more in successive years, why is that?
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Orli
Presidents who have been in office for more than eight years are also re-elected every four years
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Lina-san
I see! So that's what it was all about!
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Orli
So if President Trump is re-elected in this year's presidential election, it will be his second consecutive term in office
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Lina
Well, I heard that the 2016 US presidential election moved the market significantly!
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Lina-san
How did it work?
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Orli
I'll explain next
After the 2016 presidential election, the "Trump market" led to a rise in stock prices and a sale of the dollar!
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Orli
If Trump is elected in the 2016 US presidential election, the "Trump market as US stocks rose as.
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Lina
Wow! It's going up all the way!
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Orli
The dollar index, meanwhile, has been falling for nearly a year since Trump took office in 2017.
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Lina-san
That means dollar sale!
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Orli
That's right! At this time, the Eurodollar also turned the trend nicely.
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Lina-san
Oh, wow! If I'd started forex at this time, if I'd bought the Eurodollar, I'd have made an absolute blast!
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Lina-san
Because of this pattern, it looks like the upcoming presidential election is going to be a pretty big deal!
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Lina
I mean, why does the US presidential election affect the market so much!
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Orli
The dollar is the world's reserve currency and the largest in circulation is.
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Orli
So the U.S. presidential election will have a huge impact on the world economy.
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Lina-san
That's why all the investors in the world are looking at it!
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Lina
Well, the speculative muscle chart being talked about on Youtube It looks like we're about to see some movement in the presidential election from!
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Lina-san
I'd appreciate an explanation if you'd like!
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Orli
We'll explain next.
The speculator's chart still shows risk on in the medium to long term! This year's presidential election will also be a big market mover!
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Orli
First, the yen and Swiss franc, which tend to be bought at risk-off times, have reached a marginal buying position.
※リスクオフ・・・リスクを取って株価などに投資するより、金や円など安全資産に資金を移す流れのこと。
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Lina-san
Neatly, the limits work!
For more information on how to read investor charts, please see this explanation.
Click here for more information on how to read the speculator chart!
投機筋チャートとは大口投機筋・機関投資家・レバレッジファンドの「相場を操る御三家」のポジション量をまとめたチャートになります。
また相場を操る御三家に加え、小口投機筋のポジション量も掲載しています。
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オーリー
投機筋チャートでは普通のチャートからは見ることができない、中長期的な相場の動きを見ることができます＾＾
相場を操る御三家について
大口投機筋・機関投資家・レバレッジファンド → 大口資金で動かす存在でチャートの動きに大きく影響を与える。
小口投機筋 → 個人投資家のことであり、相場の操る御三家に比べて資金力は圧倒的に不利。
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オーリー
小口投機筋は資金力で不利なことから、相場を操る御三家の動きによってロスカットを喰らいやすい傾向にあります。
投機筋チャートはCFTCという海外のサイトからデータを取っており、それを和訳した上でチャートにまとめています。
ここで投機筋チャートで掲載しているポジション量は「NETポジション」という形式を採用しています。
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オーリー
NETポジションとは、買いポジション数から売りポジション数を差し引いたものになります。
NETポジションの定義
・NETポジション = 買いポジション数 − 売りポジション数
NETポジションは0より上、すなわちプラスの値を取ると買いポジション量が多いということになります。
逆に0より下、つまりマイナスの値を取ると売りポジション量が多いということになります。
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またNETポジションには限界値が存在し、限界値に当たると反発する傾向があります。
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次に投機筋チャートの見方は以下のようになります。
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ブログで公開している投機筋チャートにはもう一つ、総ポジション量チャートがあります。
総ポジション量は全NETポジションを合計したものになります。
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ブログで公開している投機筋チャートは一部除いて直近1年分のNETポジションをまとめています。
しかしMT4版であれば過去約10年分の投機筋チャートを使うことができます。
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Orli
The amount of position in the speculative muscle chart tends to convert when it reaches a marginal value.
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Orli
So the yen and Swiss franc may unwind their buying positions in the medium to long term, which means that can be seen as a tendency towards risk-on*.
※リスクオン・・・リスクを取ってでも株価などに投資する傾向のこと
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Lina-san
I see!
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Orli
Furthermore, the Australian dollar tends to be bought when risk is on, but it is also overbought all at once.
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Lina-san
The Australian dollar is a blast!
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Lina-san
I mean, last time you said this, you said "Nasdaq is going up again".
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Lina-san
It's amazing how nicely it's rising! Orli somewhat God!
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オーリー
Thank you. The Nasdaq has been bombed by large speculators at the largest levels.
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Lina
Wow! You're even bigger than the week before last!
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Orli
Large speculators and others have taken advantage of the profits on the Nasdaq short (sell), so a profit here would be long (buy) on the opposite side of the trade.
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Orli
Too much selling, in particular, can lead to a lot of profit-taking and buying pressure, which can lead to a temporary rise in reaction to too much falling.
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Orli
This is called short cover.
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Lina-san
This is a learning experience!
For more on Nasdaq expectations and short covering, please see this article.
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Orli
Presidential elections are fundamentals, so the presidential election time Moves may also be factored into the chart.
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Lina-san
Does that mean that the stock will continue to rise!
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Orli
That's a possibility, but there's still a month until the presidential election, so there's no chance that the current move will be reversed in the meantime.
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Orli
Either way, however, The presidential election could be a big move for stocks and FX High.
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Lina-san
I see~.
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Orli
We'll consider it when we might see another move from the speculative muscle chart!
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Lina-san
Okay! I'm looking forward to it!
In this article, we discussed the possibility that stocks and forex could make a big movement in the presidential election.
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