The 11/3 US presidential election will be a big move for stocks and forex!

2020年10月6日

[Orli blog] - Forex and Stock Real Chart Predictions.

Official Orli blog - Forex and Stock Real Chart Predictions Hello! Orli.

In a month, US Presidential Election, but this time Stocks and We will discuss the possibility of FX moving in a big presidential election.

Please read to the end of this article as it can be used as knowledge of current events.

Current events, please read to the end.

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So let's get to today's story!

Please read to the end, please.

Contents

1 Stocks and forex will move in a big way in the US presidential election on November 3!

Stocks and forex will move in a big way in the US presidential election on November 3!

Lina-san

Hello, Ollie! Well, this year was the US presidential election!

Orli

Hello, Lina! The US presidential election will be held on November 3.

Lina

And I think it's about a month!

Lina

I mean, I've heard that stocks and forex are going to move so much bigger this year because of the US presidential election, how do you think it will move this year!

Orli

I'll explain in more detail next.

Lina-san

Yes!

US presidential elections are held every four years!

Orli

When Trump was elected in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, U.S. stocks rose as a "Trump market".

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Lina

I see But we've had presidents who have been in office for 8 years or more in successive years, why is that?

Orli

Presidents who have been in office for more than eight years are also re-elected every four years

Lina-san

I see! So that's what it was all about!

Orli

So if President Trump is re-elected in this year's presidential election, it will be his second consecutive term in office

Lina

Well, I heard that the 2016 US presidential election moved the market significantly!

Lina-san

How did it work?

Orli

I'll explain next

After the 2016 presidential election, the "Trump market" led to a rise in stock prices and a sale of the dollar!

Orli

If Trump is elected in the 2016 US presidential election, the "Trump market as US stocks rose as.

Lina

Wow! It's going up all the way!

Orli

The dollar index, meanwhile, has been falling for nearly a year since Trump took office in 2017.

Lina-san

That means dollar sale!

Orli

That's right! At this time, the Eurodollar also turned the trend nicely.

Lina-san

Oh, wow! If I'd started forex at this time, if I'd bought the Eurodollar, I'd have made an absolute blast!

Lina-san

Because of this pattern, it looks like the upcoming presidential election is going to be a pretty big deal!

Lina

I mean, why does the US presidential election affect the market so much!

Orli

The dollar is the world's reserve currency and the largest in circulation is.

Orli

So the U.S. presidential election will have a huge impact on the world economy.

Lina-san

That's why all the investors in the world are looking at it!

Lina

Well, the speculative muscle chart being talked about on Youtube It looks like we're about to see some movement in the presidential election from!

Lina-san

I'd appreciate an explanation if you'd like!

Orli

We'll explain next.

The speculator's chart still shows risk on in the medium to long term! This year's presidential election will also be a big market mover!

Orli

First, the yen and Swiss franc, which tend to be bought at risk-off times, have reached a marginal buying position.

※リスクオフ・・・リスクを取って株価などに投資するより、金や円など安全資産に資金を移す流れのこと。

Lina-san

Neatly, the limits work!

For more information on how to read investor charts, please see this explanation.

Click here for more information on how to read the speculator chart!

オーリー

NETポジションとは、買いポジション数から売りポジション数を差し引いたものになります。

NETポジションの定義

・NETポジション = 買いポジション数 − 売りポジション数

オーリー

NETポジションが0から上に行くと、買いポジションが多いということになります。

オーリー

逆にNETポジションが0から下に行くと売りポジションが多いということになります。

オーリー

ポジション数には限界があるので、NETポジションが最大数になるとチャートが転換する傾向があります。

Orli

The amount of position in the speculative muscle chart tends to convert when it reaches a marginal value.

Orli

So the yen and Swiss franc may unwind their buying positions in the medium to long term, which means that can be seen as a tendency towards risk-on*.

※リスクオン・・・リスクを取ってでも株価などに投資する傾向のこと

Lina-san

I see!

Orli

Furthermore, the Australian dollar tends to be bought when risk is on, but it is also overbought all at once.

Lina-san

The Australian dollar is a blast!

Lina-san

I mean, last time you said this, you said "Nasdaq is going up again".

Lina-san

It's amazing how nicely it's rising! Orli somewhat God!

オーリー

Thank you. The Nasdaq has been bombed by large speculators at the largest levels.

Lina

Wow! You're even bigger than the week before last!

Orli

Large speculators and others have taken advantage of the profits on the Nasdaq short (sell), so a profit here would be long (buy) on the opposite side of the trade.

Orli

Too much selling, in particular, can lead to a lot of profit-taking and buying pressure, which can lead to a temporary rise in reaction to too much falling.

Orli

This is called short cover.

Lina-san

This is a learning experience!

For more on Nasdaq expectations and short covering, please see this article.

→Click here for more on the Nasdaq forecast and risk-on continuation

→About Short Cover

Orli

Presidential elections are fundamentals, so the presidential election time Moves may also be factored into the chart.

Lina-san

Does that mean that the stock will continue to rise!

Orli

That's a possibility, but there's still a month until the presidential election, so there's no chance that the current move will be reversed in the meantime.