The U.S. presidential election may cause the stock market to fall again! Speculative sources to explain! [Forex, Beginner]

[Orli blog] - Forex and Stock Real Chart Predictions.

Official Orli blog - Forex and Stock Real Chart Predictions Hello! Orli.

We recently updated our speculative muscle chart.

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This time in US Presidential Election, only stock again stock We will explain the possibility of a fall from the speculative sources chart.

Even a beginner can understand the application of speculative muscle charts, so please read to the end.

 

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So let's get to today's story!

Please read to the end, please.

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The US presidential election will bring another stock market decline!

Kanae-san
Hello, Orli, I saw this on Youtube, you said the stock could fall again despite the risk-on*

※リスクオン・・・リスクを取ってでも株価などに投資する傾向のこと

Kanae-san
But if it's risk-on, the stock should be bought, right? Isn't there a contradiction here?

Orli
Hello, Kanae! Only stocks could fall again in the run-up to the presidential election.

Kanae-san
What in the world does that mean!

Orli
I'll explain next.

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In FX, the yen, franc and Australian dollar are on a risk-on continuum!

Orli
First of all, when the yen and franc are risk-off* in FX currencies Bought, Tendency to sell at risk-on.

※リスクオフ・・・リスクを取って株価などに投資するより、金や円など安全資産に資金を移す流れのこと。

Kanae-san
Hmmm.

Orli
With this in mind, let's take a look at the amount of yen and franc positions.

Kanae-san
Oh, you're hitting the limit on both buy position volumes!

Orli
The amount of position tends to convert when it hits a limiting value.

Kanae-san
That means yen/franc will be sold and risked on in the future</span span>I guess that's the process!

Orli
I'm considering that possibility.

Orli
The Australian dollar tends to be sold at risk-off and bought at risk-on, the opposite of the yen and the franc.

Orli
The Australian dollar is heavily overbought for the second week in a row.

Kanae-san
It's true!

Kanae-san
Oh! You said before that flan was going to be sold, didn't you?

Kanae-san
The dollar franc has made a nice turn! Orli somewhat God!

Orli
Thank you ^^
 

For more information on the expected conversion of the dollar franc, please see this article.

→[FX/predictions]The franc and yen will sell off this week! Speculative muscle chart to explain!

Orli
Because the volume of buying positions in the yen and the franc is at the limit this time, I think the dollar franc still has room to rise as well.

Kanae-san
Well, you were right about the back currency pair going up when they sell off, right?

Orli
You're learning well! Dollar franc rises on franc selling, Rolling on franc buying.

Kanae-san
So far I understand the rationale for being risk-on in Forex!

Kanae-san
But what is the basis for the possibility of the stock only falling?

Orli
I'll explain next.

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Fear indices and 10-year bonds move to pre-Corona shock! Only the stock price could fall again!

Orli
Here's the Fear Index and 10-year Treasury Rate Chart, and Fear Index and the amount of the 10-year bond position.

Orli
Try to find out what these two have in common.

Kanae-san
Well - the selling position is gradually decreasing.

Kanae-san
Oh! This is similar to before the corona shock!

Orli
I like the way you look at it!

Orli
In fact, there was a similar move before the March corona shock.

 

Please see this article for a speculator's discussion of the fear index and 10-year Treasury rate before the corona shock.

→For a past look at the fear index

→For a past discussion of the 10-year bond

Orli
After these two selling positions were unwound, the stock market crashed with the Corona shock came.

Kanae-san
This was another great guess! Orli somewhat God!

Orli
Thank you ^^

Orli
The volume of positions on the 10-year Treasury note was especially bought as the volume of positions on the Nasdaq sold off to a record high.

Orli
From here, we can consider the possibility that the portion of the Nasdaq short has been turned over to the 10-year Treasury long.

Kanae-san
I see~.

Orli
Once again, the possibility of another stock market decline has emerged from a move similar to the one before the Corona shock, this time with a fear index and two 10-year bonds.

Orli
However, given the risk-on move in the FX position, we believe that if the stock price falls again, it will only end in a correction.

Kanae-san
In other words, if it falls, it's going to go up again like the Nasdaq is doing now?

 

Orli
Right So stocks may also continue to rise right over the long term.

Orli
Just think that even with the risk on, a temporary drop in stock prices could come again, I think buying the stock as much as possible at this stage is a big risk.

Kanae-san
Well, do you think a temporary drop in the stock price would have an impact on the forex?

Orli
If a temporary drop in stock prices comes again, there will be no impact on FX Or, if there is, the possibility is conceivable that it is small.

Orli
Of course, even if the move in the fear index and the 10-year bond was a sign of a falling stock price, it could be a pattern of risk-on, stock price declines not coming, and a pattern of steady growth all the way up The following is a brief description of the process.

Kanae-san
I see!

Orli
There's still a month until the presidential election, so I think we'll see some speculators in the meantime.

Kanae-san
If you see a big move, please consider it!

Orli
Okay! Please look forward to it ^^

Kanae-san
I also want to look at a 10-year speculator's chart to verify it, where can I see it?

Orli
You can see it here!

Kanae-san
Thank you!

Orli
And this time the content is also explained in this video.

Kanae-san
I'll watch the video again to review it! I learned a lot today ♫

 

This time, we discuss the Chart of Speculators and the possibility that stock prices will fall again after the US Presidential Election I did, but what did you think?

I hope this helps newbies understand the application of speculative muscle charts.

I hope you use it for your future trades!

 

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